Mother Nature does not play dice. Statistically speaking P50 is neither the mean nor the most likely. Instead, Well Proved Undeveloped (PUD) uses what geologists have found, i.e., grain sizes follow a lognormal distribution, to model the range of likely initial production from a PUD well. Your digital assistant on fundamental quantitative risk assessment, expects input: 1) estimated initial production (IP) bopd of your well, 2) spread or uncertainty of that estimate (as standard deviation) in percent, and 3) your confidence level. By taking into account the underlying geology distribution, Well PUD outputs P90, P50, and P10 IP estimates and at other specified confidence levels. In conjunction with Well Econ and Well Wildcat, Well PUD helps make prudent investment decisions, leading the way to more quantitative risk management in oil and gas.
“Initial production one thousand barrels oil per day and spread thirty perce... ”
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